Event

The Department of Mathematics and Statistics hosts the second PhD seminar of Ms. Joanna Sooknanan titled, “Modelling Gangs in Trinidad and Tobago.” This seminar will take place on Thursday 21^st April, 2011, from 3-4pm, at Room FSA 313. 

Abstract

Within the five-year period 2004-2009, Trinidad and Tobago experienced an increase of 150% in the homicide rate, with gang warfare being a major contributory factor. Current attempts to investigate crime in Trinidad and Tobago have concentrated on using statistical techniques to draw conclusions. In this study, a criminal gang is treated as an infection that spreads through a community by interactions among gang members and others in the population (peer contagion). Our approach will be to develop a mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations describing the growth of gangs. The impact of contact/recruitment rates, intervention/deterrence rates, increased conviction rates, recidivism/relapse and longer jail sentences are explored. Analysis indicates that the spread of the "gang infection" can be reduced if the criminal justice system is made more efficient and effective.