Did you know the weather event called El Niño (Little Boy in Spanish) was first observed in the 1600s by South American fishermen who would often notice years where there was unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. In the years since, fishermen would often notice this phenomenon. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) factsheet stated they observed the event peaking around Christmas time, which led to the fishermen calling it El Niño de Navidad.
After decades of studies, scientists have a better understanding of El Niño.
When it occurs, trade winds that usually blow west over the Pacific Ocean are weakened, slow down and can reverse. This causes the warm water in the Pacific, which is often pushed westwards, to spread to central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific. As a result, countries across the Americas, including the Caribbean, face dryer and warmer conditions.
But the effects of El Niño are not only limited to the Americas. It disrupts global weather patterns and can cause everything from extreme drought to intense floods across the world.
Though the event doesn’t have a fixed schedule, it has been observed to occur every two to seven years. In a September 2026 alert, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) shared that this year’s El Niño event is firmly established and intensifying, and is predicted to persist into February 2027.
This heightened El Niño activity can fuel extreme weather according to the WMO.
Head of the UWI St Augustine Geography and Sustainability Sciences Department and Senior Hydrology Lecturer, Dr Kagan Farrick, told UWI Today that the department is monitoring how this intensified El Niño will affect water availability at its hydrology research site in the community of Acono, located in the Maracas St Joseph Valley.
By monitoring the effects of El Niño at this site, it can give a snapshot of how the phenomenon is affecting water resources across the country.
Dr Farrick explained, “We have been doing continuous monitoring of the Acono Watershed since 2024, when it was a much wetter rainy season.
“So this year we are continuing with the monitoring in that watershed, and we are using some really neat geochemical tools like stable water isotopes and a radioactive isotope called radon 222.”
He added, “What we are trying to measure is how the amount of groundwater that flows into the streams changes during El Niño.”
Dr Farrick said the research team is particularly interested in analysing if a decrease in rainfall due to El Niño causes the Acono watershed to tap into deeper groundwater sources and use that water to supplement the amount of water that flows in the watershed’s streams.
To monitor how the streams will change their volume and flow rate in reaction to the environment due to limited rainfall, the research will use computer-modelling techniques.
Dr Farrick shared, “Based on what we are seeing so far in the streams that we usually work with, the water levels are really, really low. There are some sections that have actually dried up a bit, and because the water level is so low, the water is now moving underneath the stream bed.
“What is important for people to understand is that even if El Niño ends in 2027, the effects of the El Niño will be felt probably into 2028.”
Dr Farrick said prolonged dry conditions and reduced rainfall will result in the country’s streams and groundwater taking longer to replenish and return to volumes of water they held before. As such, he is encouraging everyone in Trinidad and Tobago to use water responsibly and conserve water to assist authorities in managing the decreased water supplies available for domestic consumption.
“Whether that is fixing your leaks, having low-flow toilet systems or just trying to recycle water, there are simple practices that we can all do at home to help conserve water.
“There are ways that as a country and a big community, we could work together to ensure that we aren’t using too much of the available water supply.”
If anyone needs any more evidence of the effects of an intensified El Niño, experts point to the lack of hurricane formation in the Atlantic for 2026.
On September 12, the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season set a record for the longest a hurricane season has gone without a storm reaching hurricane strength since the start of modern weather records by the NOAA since at least 1966.
While Dr Farrick said it is common for El Niño years to produce fewer hurricanes, he acknowledges this year’s lack of hurricane formation at this point of the year is notable. However, he is still calling for vigilance and preparedness.
He cautioned, “We are still not in the clear as a hurricane could happen at any time. So it is important for people to understand that even though we expect fewer hurricanes due to El Niño, you can still have hurricanes forming and it is important for the Caribbean to be prepared.”
Though he said it cannot be definitively proven that climate change is the cause of this year’s intensified El Niño, Dr Farrick said it cannot be ruled out that the effects of climate change are compounding it.
As the country and region continue to navigate the effects of the intensified El Niño, Dr Farrick reminds people to continue being conscious of the importance of water.
“Water plays such an important part in our everyday life, from drinking to showering, cleaning your yard, to bathing your dog and watering your plants. It is a critical part of everyday life, so for me [water conservation] is one of the most important things that we need to understand.”
