SUNDAY 3RD APRIL, 2016 – UWI TODAY
7
STATE OF THE ECONOMY SYMPOSIUM
He was giving the opening remarks
at a symposiumhosted
by the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic
Studies (SALISES) on the state of the economy. Like many
of the panelists at the Saturday, March 19 event, Principal
Clement Sankat was hopeful for the economic future of
the region while acknowledging the persistent problems of
Caribbean economies and the challenges in solving them.
Speaking specifically about conditions in Trinidad and
Tobago, he said, “I think we have made progress. We have
moved fromoil to gas to petrochemicals. We have deepened
our engagement and developed new products. We have also
seen the rise of manufacturing and become the leader in
the region for manufactured goods. But we have become
complacent. We have not deepened our gains.”
Titled “Return of the Downturn in the Caribbean:
Sustaining Hope and Economic Recovery”, the symposium
was held at the Learning Resource Centre Auditorium of
the St. Augustine Campus and included panelists from the
private sector, the United Nations Development Centre
(UNDP), labour, the protective services , non-governmental
organisations, professional associations and academics from
The UWI and other institutions.
The event was organised into three panels: Sustainable
Production, Crime and Security and Governance. “The
things we believe are key for the sustainable development
and recovery of the Caribbean,” explained Professor Patrick
Watson, Director of SALISES. One of the recurring themes
of the symposium was that downturns are natural and
normal.
“We have been here before,” said Dr. Rolph Balgobin,
President of the Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturer’s
Association. “This is not unexpected. It is unexpected that
you would not expect a recession. This is a standard aspect
of economic life. A recession is a time of great opportunity.
It is a time when we can take stock of our position, make
adjustments and get ready to move on to the next curve.”
Professor Sankat said, “What we are experiencing now
in T&T is nothing that is new.” He went on to describe
“periods of turbulence” in 1969 and then in the late 1980s
and early 1990s.
Hope in Turbulent Times
B Y J O E L H E N R Y
“
A long and purposeful vision, a shared view of where we want to be in
20 to 30 years in the region is a matter of great urgency,”
Pro-Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal Professor Clement Sankat
However, mixed in with the recognition of the
temporary nature of downturns was the acknowledgment
of the difficulty in finding solutions for the structural
challenges of the region’s economies.
“I hope this symposium will generate some new ideas
but to be honest there may have been many symposia like
this since the ’70s. And it is very likely that we will repeat
some of the same things that we have been saying since the
’70s, although the world has changed and there are some
new opportunities,” Professor Sankat said.
One of the highlights of the day was the opening
address by Ms. Marla Dukharan, Group Economist for
RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited. In her engaging
presentation, Ms. Dukharan described the Caribbean’s
economic landscape, showing a region both dependent and
restricted by the role of governments. Weak governance,
weak institutions and a culture of impunity, she said, had
led to low investor confidence, low investment and low
productivity. In addition, increased government spending
during the boom times had pushed debt to unsustainable
levels.
Her recommendationswere the implementationof fiscal
rules to better regulate government spending, continuity in
strategic national policies apart from and beyond the five-
year election cycle, the reducing of government’s role in
the economy, reforms to encourage greater private sector
participation, and greater government investment in
national infrastructure to increase productivity.
One panelist however was not in step with the notion
that the current downturn was a normal occurrence.
“I heard one of the commentators say that this is a
recession and we have been here before,” said Dr. Roger
Hosein, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator of the Trade
Economics Development Unit. “I do not agree with that.
This recession is different to the last recession of the 1980s
because we are four billion barrels of oil equivalent poorer.
We are in a new normal and the probabilities are against the
Trinidad and Tobago economy in that regard.”
Speaking on the Crime and Security panel, which
also included Acting Commissioner of Police Mr. Stephen
Williams, Dr. Hosein focused on corruption and its
devastating effects on the economy and society. He said
that oil and gas economies are some of the most corrupt in
the world and this manifested in Trinidad and Tobago in
the form of a lack of growth in GDP for almost a decade.
“People are bandying about whether we are in a
recession and whether or not people will lose their jobs.
The much deeper problem is that we have remained at the
same level of economic activity since 2006. GDP as we speak
is very close to what it was in 2006. Who is responsible for
that? Who can we take to court for the management of the
US$132 billion in economic rent?” he asked.
Lasting well into the afternoon, panelists reinforced
the point that the state of the economy was more than an
economic concern.
“The economy can’t shake without the society
wobbling,” Dr. Balgobin said.
Professor Sankat said that The UWI has been seeking
greater engagement with key stakeholders but many times
it seemed as though they were not present.
“But we have to try and continue to try even harder,”
he said, “to get everyone on board and get the views and
perspectives of all, and really to listen to some of the creative
ideas that emerge.”
Marla Dukharan spoke
of weak governance and
weak institutions.
The first panel was moderated by Professor Compton Bourne and included (from left) Dr. Ronald Ramkissoon, Dr. Rolph Balgobin, David Abdulah and Dr. Ralph Henry.
