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April 2016
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“A long and purposeful vision, a shared view of where we want to be in 20 to 30 years in the region is a matter of great urgency,” said Pro-Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal Professor Clement Sankat. He was giving the opening remarks at a symposium hosted by the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) on the state of the economy. Like many of the panelists at the Saturday, March 19 event, Principal Sankat was hopeful for the economic future of the region while acknowledging the persistent problems of Caribbean economies and the challenges in solving them. Speaking specifically about conditions in Trinidad and Tobago, he said, “I think we have made progress. We have moved from oil to gas to petrochemicals. We have deepened our engagement and developed new products. We have also seen the rise of manufacturing and become the leader in the region for manufactured goods. But we have become complacent. We have not deepened our gains.” Titled “Return of the Downturn in the Caribbean: Sustaining Hope and Economic Recovery”, the symposium was held at the Learning Resource Centre Auditorium of the St. Augustine Campus and included panelists from the private sector, the United Nations Development Centre (UNDP), labour, the protective services, non-governmental organisations, professional associations and academics from The UWI and other institutions. The event was organised into three panels: Sustainable Production, Crime and Security and Governance. “The things we believe are key for the sustainable development and recovery of the Caribbean,” explained Professor Patrick Watson, Director of SALISES. One of the recurring themes of the symposium was that downturns are natural and normal. “We have been here before,” said Dr. Rolph Balgobin, President of the Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturer’s Association. “This is not unexpected. It is unexpected that you would not expect a recession. This is a standard aspect of economic life. A recession is a time of great opportunity. It is a time when we can take stock of our position, make adjustments and get ready to move on to the next curve.” Professor Sankat said, “What we are experiencing now in T&T is nothing that is new.” He went on to describe “periods of turbulence” in 1969 and then in the late 1980s and early 1990s. However, mixed in with the recognition of the temporary nature of downturns was the acknowledgment of the difficulty in finding solutions for the structural challenges of the region’s economies. “I hope this symposium will generate some new ideas but to be honest there may have been many symposia like this since the ’70s. And it is very likely that we will repeat some of the same things that we have been saying since the ’70s, although the world has changed and there are some new opportunities,” Professor Sankat said.
Her recommendations were the implementation of fiscal rules to better regulate government spending, continuity in strategic national policies apart from and beyond the five-year election cycle, the reducing of government’s role in the economy, reforms to encourage greater private sector participation, and greater government investment in national infrastructure to increase productivity. One panelist however was not in step with the notion that the current downturn was a normal occurrence. “I heard one of the commentators say that this is a recession and we have been here before,” said Dr. Roger Hosein, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator of the Trade Economics Development Unit. “I do not agree with that. This recession is different to the last recession of the 1980s because we are four billion barrels of oil equivalent poorer. We are in a new normal and the probabilities are against the Trinidad and Tobago economy in that regard.” Speaking on the Crime and Security panel, which also included Acting Commissioner of Police Mr. Stephen Williams, Dr. Hosein focused on corruption and its devastating effects on the economy and society. He said that oil and gas economies are some of the most corrupt in the world and this manifested in Trinidad and Tobago in the form of a lack of growth in GDP for almost a decade. “People are bandying about whether we are in a recession and whether or not people will lose their jobs. The much deeper problem is that we have remained at the same level of economic activity since 2006. GDP as we speak is very close to what it was in 2006. Who is responsible for that? Who can we take to court for the management of the US$132 billion in economic rent?” he asked. Lasting well into the afternoon, panelists reinforced the point that the state of the economy was more than an economic concern. “The economy can’t shake without the society wobbling,” Dr. Balgobin said. Professor Sankat said that The UWI has been seeking greater engagement with key stakeholders but many times it seemed as though they were not present. “But we have to try and continue to try even harder,” he said, “to get everyone on board and get the views and perspectives of all, and really to listen to some of the creative ideas that emerge.”
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One of the highlights of the day was the opening address by Ms. Marla Dukharan, Group Economist for RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited. In her engaging presentation, Ms. Dukharan described the Caribbean’s economic landscape, showing a region both dependent and restricted by the role of governments. Weak governance, weak institutions and a culture of impunity, she said, had led to low investor confidence, low investment and low productivity. In addition, increased government spending during the boom times had pushed debt to unsustainable levels. 