October 2016


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For the period 1950 to 2040, the pace at which the population in Trinidad and Tobago has aged and will continue to age, exceeds that of Barbados, Canada, Italy and the United States based on past population trends and those that are projected for the period 2010 and 2040.

The pace of aging is defined as the expected increase in the median age from one decade to the next. Table 1 lists expected increases in the median age of the population in eight countries. In Trinidad and Tobago, the median age is expected to increase by 3.2 years every decade. Corresponding increases in the case of Barbados, Italy, Canada and the United States are 3.1 years, 2.8 years, 2.7 years and 1.7 years respectively. The median age is a measure summarising the average age of a country’s population.

If this statistic does not sound alarming enough about our aging population, consider that 30 years ago the average birth rate was 3 children to 1 woman and in 2010 it was one child per woman – which implies that the population of Trinidad and Tobago will likely experience negative population growth as early as during the 2020s.

These demographics are time-bombs that can potentially have negative impacts for national productivity, NIS reserves, the nation’s capacity to sustain health care services that treat with chronic non-communicable illnesses and international competitiveness of economic entities within the domestic economy. Are public and private sector agendas ready to address these concerns in a nation and region where very little reverence is placed upon social and economic planning?

Earlier this year, demographers, statisticians, development specialists, public sector technocrats and other allied professionals convened to showcase, discuss and precipitate action to influence sustainable development agendas that ought to be cognisant of critical attributes of national populations.

The Caribbean Research Cluster for Population and Sustainable Development is one of several clusters associated with the Fifty-Fifty Research Initiative that was established in the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) in 2012. In January 2016, the Cluster successfully organised the first in a series of country conferences that was entitled, Population Issues and Dynamics in Trinidad and Tobago: Theory, Practice and Policy for Post 2015 SDG. Three outstanding Caribbean demographers working in the period 1950 to the end of the 1980s – George Roberts, Jack Harewood and Norma Abdulah, were honoured for their respective contributions. The common themes characterising their scholarly contributions included the socio-demographic reality of Anglophone Caribbean societies; data-driven approaches to understanding development processes in Caribbean societies; the development of national statistical systems, and human capital development. The keynote plenaries were developed drawing on these themes with addresses being delivered by Dr Ralph Henry, Sunity Maharaj and Dr Terrence Farrell.

The programme also featured three additional plenaries showcasing key insights and perspectives that underlie the work programmes of critical stakeholders. The Ministry of Planning and Development was a main partner in organising the conference and convened a panel consisting of three senior public service professionals who provided key insights into the management of national population dynamics. The second set of stakeholders consisted of representatives from the NGO community, specifically, the National Family Planning Association, the Diabetes Association of Trinidad and Tobago and the Living Water Community. The third set of stakeholders represented the youth movement with panelists presenting messages from the perspectives of academia, entrepreneurship, youth development and the media.

The conference attracted a total of 55 formal papers covering wide-ranging themes including population redistribution and spatial development; improving quality of life; vulnerability of children and elderly populations; migrant lived experiences and other labour migration issues; population ageing and social security; nutritional, health and lifestyle challenges; maternal health, child health and fetal mortality; demographic transition and ageing issues; quality threats to human capital formation; fertility behaviour and fertility decline; data quality and social planning; and methodological approaches impacting socio-demographic data. More than 100 authors including social scientists, medical scientists, food production specialists, statisticians, regional planners presented findings and ideas emanating from their research and contributed towards strengthening inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary foci as a means of contending with the often neglected nuances that characterise population dynamics and socio-demographic issues in contemporary Trinidad and Tobago.

In keeping with its pledge to replicate similar conferences across the Anglophone Caribbean, the Caribbean Research Cluster for Population and Sustainable Development has begun the organisation of the second country conference in Jamaica. This conference entitled Population Planning for Development in Jamaica: Theory, Practice and Policy for Post 2015 SDGs is scheduled to take place during 25 - 27 January, 2017 at the Jamaica Conference Centre in Kingston, Jamaica. It seeks to explore a wide array of population issues that are associated with development prospects specifically in Jamaica. Despite being a SALISES initiative, the conference is organised in collaboration with STATIN, Department of Sociology, Social Work and Psychology in The University of the West Indies (Mona) and other allied partners such as the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Jamaica embarked upon a major macro-level planning initiative entitled Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan during 2007. Accordingly, “Jamaica, the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business” captures the essence of the national vision statement and implicitly reflects a desire to positively impact the well-being of human populations, in individual capacities and as variable collectives on one hand, and the character of societal institutions that are not only shaped by such populations but also influence outcomes associated with critical attributes akin to such populations. Not surprisingly, a constant theme that will be characteristic of every country conference is the intrinsic link between demographic and other population-related variables and processes of inclusive and sustainable development.

The upcoming 2017 conference will provide an opportunity for potential panelists to discuss disciplinary and inter-disciplinary perspectives that bear upon a wide array of related issues and inform research inputs and policy prescription. It is expected to yield outcomes that reflect progressive orientations towards human populations in the attainment of sustainable development thrusts. In promoting this series of Caribbean population conferences, a key guiding principle is that sustainable development will not be economically viable, socio-culturally sensitive, environmentally responsible and people-focused if it were to be insensitive to human population structures and dynamics.

Dr Godfrey St. Bernard is a Senior Fellow at SALISES on The UWI, St. Augustine. He is the conference coordinator for Population Planning for Development in Jamaica: Theory, Practice and Policy for Post 2015 SDGs.